Gold and Silver Market Volatility

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  • January 30, 2025

In the early hours of December 17, trading activity in the Asian market presented a mixed picture for gold, which fluctuated within a narrow range hovering around the $2652.01 per ounce markThis follows a turbulent session on Monday when prices hit a week-long low of $2643.41 before rebounding to close at approximately $2652.50. The fluctuating values are significantly influenced by ongoing geopolitical concerns and the easing of the US dollar's dominance in the marketMarket participants are presently exhibiting caution as they await insights from the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, with speculation surrounding a third interest rate cut and indications of what’s expected into 2025. Thus, the overall trading sentiment remains subdued as investors remain on the sidelines.

Manufacturing in the United States faced ongoing contraction in December, evidenced by a gauge of manufacturing output plunging to its lowest level in over four and a half years

The forecast of rising tariffs was centered as a vaccine for concerns tied to the increasing cost of imported raw materials in the coming yearAccording to S&P Global, the preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell from November's 49.7 down to 48.3, contrasting sharply with the economists’ predictions that had set initial estimations at 49.8. A PMI below 50 signals a shrinking manufacturing sector, which composes approximately 10.3% of the total economyAdditionally, the factory output index plunged from 47.9 in November to a concerning 46.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020.

In a parallel development, the United States announced its intention to levy a 25% tariff on products originating from Mexico and Canada, both of whom are significant trading partnersWhile this move raised fears among manufacturers, optimism from effective outcomes following the November 5 elections paved the way for an increase in the service sector’s PMI, which rose sharply from 56.1 to an impressive 58.5, achieving a new peak not seen in the past 38 months

Consequently, the composite PMI, which tracks both manufacturing and services, soared from 54.9 in November to 56.6, the highest mark recorded since March 2022.

Despite the overall market apprehension surrounding financial instruments like gold, analysis from December 17 highlights potential trading opportunitiesAfter opening at around $2650, gold prices navigated a brief dip to a solid support level around $2643 before rebounding firmlyThis bullish momentum continued into the European trading hours, pushing prices up to a peak of approximately $2664. However, the momentum tapered off somewhat during the American trading session, resulting in a slight pullback and stabilizing close, with the daily trend reflecting a modest upward movementAn analysis of the daily chart indicates that the Bollinger Bands indicate a consolidation phase while the MACD histogram shows dwindling momentum, suggesting that any upward movement may be tenuous unless the resistance levels at $2648 or above are convincingly broken.

The advice for navigating this gold bull market remains cautious yet optimistic

Traders keen on entering positions might look toward buying in the vicinity of $2634 to $2636, placing stops around $6.5 to create an attractive risk-to-reward proposition with targets set at $2648, $2665, and potentially upwards to $2690. Alternatively, should prices drift towards $2620, this could prompt a buying opportunity with similar stop-loss measures appliedFor those looking towards bearish stances, entering short positions near $2690 to $2692 could yield returns with targets aimed downward at $2710 and $2700.

Turning to silver, the analysis on December 17 provided compelling insights into movements following opening at $30.27. This position coincided closely with the intraday low support region, but a subsequent rally developed, particularly during the European session, where silver managed to touch $30.74 before concluding the day with a slight upward shift

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Chart evaluations indicate that the current movement respects the bounds of the Bollinger Bands; thus, gauging entry points within the $29.85 to $30 range may provide worthwhile opening tradesStopping losses just below $29.62 while eyeing targets that reach towards $30.53, $31.16, and attaining a stretch goal of $32 could yield favorable outcomes.

On the energy front, crude oil opened trading on the same day at a high of $71.4, but immediately faced downward pressure, reflecting a bearish trend through the Asian and European trading sessionsA brief upward movement was observed post-American session opening but subsequently concluded with a diminutive candlestickThe analysis points toward price action stabilizing in a narrower range, thus consolidating momentumNotably, traders eyeing short positions should target opportunities as prices test higher resistance near $70.8 to $71, instituting stop-loss points above $72 and aiming to capitalize on downward targets extending to $69.5 and $67.

The continued dialogue surrounding market dynamics focuses upon balancing risk assessments with emerging geopolitical winds

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