Massive Money Supply Surge Fails to Move Dollar

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  • January 24, 2025

For several decades, the United States has maintained a status as an economic superpower, primarily through its control of the dollar, the world's leading currencyThe imposition of the dollar supremacy has allowed the U.S. to exert unparalleled influence over global economic policies and to print money seemingly without constraintsIn the past two years alone, the U.S. has printed a staggering $4.6 trillion, a figure so immense it boggles the mindTo put this into perspective, one could argue that $4.6 trillion could fund the construction of over 300 of the U.SNavy's latest Ford-class aircraft carriers or constitute the total annual GDP of the entire province of Zhejiang, China, which stands at $1 trillion per year.

But how is it that the U.S. government can print money with virtually no regard for the consequences? Typically, the currency of a country is tied to the nation's credibility, and if that currency's credibility diminishes, its value could plunge, leading to an economic crisisHistorically, the U.S. has imposed restrictions on dollar issuance to prevent inflationFor instance, the dollar was once pegged to gold, limiting the amount of currency that could be printed to the amount of gold heldFurthermore, the U.SCongress imposed ceilings on government debt to keep excessive borrowing in check.

However, in 1971, President Nixon decoupled the dollar from the gold standard, effectively bypassing the first restrictionThe second constraint began to erode in 1981 when President Reagan aggressively raised the debt ceiling amidst the Cold War, allowing U.S. national debt to surge from $500 billion to an astronomical $2.6 trillion - effectively a fivefold increaseSince then, each successive president has continued this trend, resulting in a national debt that has swelled close to $30 trillion todayThis debacle is further compounded by a system where the issuance of dollars and bonds are intertwined.

When the U.STreasury issues bonds, it is essentially creating debt that is funded by the Federal Reserve through money printing, creating a direct line from the Treasury's expenses to the money supply

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This unnaturally connects the government’s spending and the Fed's monetary policy, which has enabled unchecked government borrowing and rampant money printing over the last four decades.

As of now, U.SGDP is approximately $20 trillion, while the national debt stands at an alarming $30 trillionThe implications are severe; the U.S. cannot realistically pay off its debts without a significant shift in its economic strategyHowever, because U.S. national debt is priced in dollars, and so long as there is confidence in the dollar, the U.S. can continue to print more money without major repercussions on the global stage.

Yet, one might wonder why the dollar continues to be strong despite such vast increases in money supply and national debtIf countries can merely print money, it should lead to dilutions in value, leading to steep inflation domestically, while devaluing their currency internationallyWhile currently, the U.S. faces its highest inflation in decades, domestically the dollar remains strong abroadThe dollar index, a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of other currencies, has demonstrated resilience, contradicting the expectation that such extensive monetary expansion would harm its strength.

This sustainability can be traced back to two main phases in the history of the U.S. dollarThe first phase was characterized by the Bretton Woods system, where the dollar was viewed as absolute currency based on a fixed exchange to goldIn contrast, the current phase sees the dollar operating as a relative currency, gauged against various global currencies in a floating exchange rate system.

Simply put, as long as the currencies in the dollar index's basket maintain a proportional stability against the dollar, the dollar's relative strength remains intactOther countries have also engaged in quantifiable easing, reflecting a collective behavior amongst developed economies like the European Union and Japan, who follow suit in expanding their monetary supply

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Since the 2008 financial crisis, all major economies have implemented similar strategies, resulting in the dollar maintaining its value against other currencies despite significant domestic inflation.

The question arises: why can't European and Japanese currencies stake their claims to power? One reason is that they are intrinsically tied to the same fiscal pattern, feeding off the same global economic dynamics that allow the U.S. to maintain its dollar dominanceCountries across the globe, particularly in the developing world, have become ensnared in a cycle of dependence on U.S. dollar liquidity, effectively transferring wealth from poorer economies back to wealthier ones.

As developing countries strive to bolster their economies, they often resort to low currency valuations tied to the dollar, seeking to attract foreign investments while amassing foreign exchange reserves that are ultimately reinvested in the U.S. financial marketsIn doing so, these countries inadvertently facilitate the wealth extraction, as developed nations reap the benefits of financing these markets at lower costs.

This dynamic creates two pathways through which developed economies profit from developing nations: through interest rate spreads and currency decay resulting from inflationThe financial system effectively instructs lower monetary premiums from developed nations, while extracting higher returns through investments in developing markets, establishing a lucrative precedent that continuously siphons resources from the periphery to the core.

In the current global economic climate, over $12 trillion in foreign exchange reserves exist, with the U.S. dollar constituting nearly 59.15% of this totalEssentially, this translates to a systems of cryptocurrency and currency reserves that operates as a form of imperial taxation, allowing developed economies to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of developing ones, thereby solidifying the status quo.

So, is it indeed impossible to dismantle the dollar's hegemonic status? The framework of dollar supremacy hinges on three sequential processes: the Federal Reserve printing dollars that acquire products from poor nations, those nations accumulating reserves often funneled back into U.S. markets, and American enterprises leveraging low-cost financing to generate returns in developing economies.

To challenge the supremacy of the dollar, at least one of these processes must be disrupted

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