Massive Money Supply Surge Fails to Move Dollar

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  • January 24, 2025

For several decades, the United States has maintained a status as an economic superpower, primarily through its control of the dollar, the world's leading currencyThe imposition of the dollar supremacy has allowed the U.Sto exert unparalleled influence over global economic policies and to print money seemingly without constraintsIn the past two years alone, the U.Shas printed a staggering $4.6 trillion, a figure so immense it boggles the mindTo put this into perspective, one could argue that $4.6 trillion could fund the construction of over 300 of the U.SNavy's latest Ford-class aircraft carriers or constitute the total annual GDP of the entire province of Zhejiang, China, which stands at $1 trillion per year.

But how is it that the U.Sgovernment can print money with virtually no regard for the consequences? Typically, the currency of a country is tied to the nation's credibility, and if that currency's credibility diminishes, its value could plunge, leading to an economic crisis

Historically, the U.Shas imposed restrictions on dollar issuance to prevent inflationFor instance, the dollar was once pegged to gold, limiting the amount of currency that could be printed to the amount of gold heldFurthermore, the U.SCongress imposed ceilings on government debt to keep excessive borrowing in check.

However, in 1971, President Nixon decoupled the dollar from the gold standard, effectively bypassing the first restrictionThe second constraint began to erode in 1981 when President Reagan aggressively raised the debt ceiling amidst the Cold War, allowing U.Snational debt to surge from $500 billion to an astronomical $2.6 trillion - effectively a fivefold increaseSince then, each successive president has continued this trend, resulting in a national debt that has swelled close to $30 trillion todayThis debacle is further compounded by a system where the issuance of dollars and bonds are intertwined.

When the U.S

Treasury issues bonds, it is essentially creating debt that is funded by the Federal Reserve through money printing, creating a direct line from the Treasury's expenses to the money supplyThis unnaturally connects the government’s spending and the Fed's monetary policy, which has enabled unchecked government borrowing and rampant money printing over the last four decades.

As of now, U.SGDP is approximately $20 trillion, while the national debt stands at an alarming $30 trillionThe implications are severe; the U.Scannot realistically pay off its debts without a significant shift in its economic strategyHowever, because U.Snational debt is priced in dollars, and so long as there is confidence in the dollar, the U.Scan continue to print more money without major repercussions on the global stage.

Yet, one might wonder why the dollar continues to be strong despite such vast increases in money supply and national debt

If countries can merely print money, it should lead to dilutions in value, leading to steep inflation domestically, while devaluing their currency internationallyWhile currently, the U.Sfaces its highest inflation in decades, domestically the dollar remains strong abroadThe dollar index, a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of other currencies, has demonstrated resilience, contradicting the expectation that such extensive monetary expansion would harm its strength.

This sustainability can be traced back to two main phases in the history of the U.SdollarThe first phase was characterized by the Bretton Woods system, where the dollar was viewed as absolute currency based on a fixed exchange to goldIn contrast, the current phase sees the dollar operating as a relative currency, gauged against various global currencies in a floating exchange rate system.

Simply put, as long as the currencies in the dollar index's basket maintain a proportional stability against the dollar, the dollar's relative strength remains intact

alefox

Other countries have also engaged in quantifiable easing, reflecting a collective behavior amongst developed economies like the European Union and Japan, who follow suit in expanding their monetary supplySince the 2008 financial crisis, all major economies have implemented similar strategies, resulting in the dollar maintaining its value against other currencies despite significant domestic inflation.

The question arises: why can't European and Japanese currencies stake their claims to power? One reason is that they are intrinsically tied to the same fiscal pattern, feeding off the same global economic dynamics that allow the U.Sto maintain its dollar dominanceCountries across the globe, particularly in the developing world, have become ensnared in a cycle of dependence on U.Sdollar liquidity, effectively transferring wealth from poorer economies back to wealthier ones.

As developing countries strive to bolster their economies, they often resort to low currency valuations tied to the dollar, seeking to attract foreign investments while amassing foreign exchange reserves that are ultimately reinvested in the U.S

financial marketsIn doing so, these countries inadvertently facilitate the wealth extraction, as developed nations reap the benefits of financing these markets at lower costs.

This dynamic creates two pathways through which developed economies profit from developing nations: through interest rate spreads and currency decay resulting from inflationThe financial system effectively instructs lower monetary premiums from developed nations, while extracting higher returns through investments in developing markets, establishing a lucrative precedent that continuously siphons resources from the periphery to the core.

In the current global economic climate, over $12 trillion in foreign exchange reserves exist, with the U.Sdollar constituting nearly 59.15% of this totalEssentially, this translates to a systems of cryptocurrency and currency reserves that operates as a form of imperial taxation, allowing developed economies to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of developing ones, thereby solidifying the status quo.

So, is it indeed impossible to dismantle the dollar's hegemonic status? The framework of dollar supremacy hinges on three sequential processes: the Federal Reserve printing dollars that acquire products from poor nations, those nations accumulating reserves often funneled back into U.S

markets, and American enterprises leveraging low-cost financing to generate returns in developing economies.

To challenge the supremacy of the dollar, at least one of these processes must be disruptedHowever, at present, it is unlikely that the dollar will cease to be the dominant medium for international transactionsCountries are eager to do business with the U.S., securing trade agreements that facilitate exports to America, ensuring the volume of dollars in circulation continues unabatedEven if a nation were to attempt to divest itself of dollar reserves, they would still risk economic sanctions or volatility that could compromise stability.

Furthermore, existing financial systems are hesitant to abandon the dollar threshold due to its reliability compared to other asset classesIn the event of heightened inflation or economic recession, safeguarded investments gravitate towards U.S

treasuries as a safe haven due to their liquidity, stability, and reliability, perpetuating the cycleDespite recent decreases in foreign holdings of U.Sbonds, around $7.5 trillion still remains in foreign, private, and state hands—within Asia, approximately $3.9 trillion resides.

Ultimately, the trifecta that underpins the U.Sdollar remains intact for the foreseeable futureHowever, just because the U.Sis adept at maintaining its economic dominance does not imply that such supremacy is infallibleThe persistence of inflation, coupled with shifts in global economic power, foretells an impending challenge to dollar dominance, particularly if nations outside of the established currency dominoes develop their monetary systems that can contend with the dollar—though that remains highly speculative.

In conclusion, the question isn't about whether dollar hegemony can persist; it is about where it will go in the long run

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